Certain potential changes could materially affect origination volume and determine the government-sponsored enterprises’ direction going forward, according to analysts. One of those changes could have a significant impact on the FHA market. Wells Fargo Securities analysts recently looked at three potential developments in the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac sphere and evaluated their effects on the broader mortgage market. Two of those potential changes – loan limits and guarantee fees – are controlled directly by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, while the third relates to the temporary GSE qualified-mortgage exemption, or “QM patch,” which could affect the FHA market. All three factors loom over the mortgage landscape as the FHFA expects a new director in January 2019, who is likely to be more right leaning and could shift the focus back to shrinking the ...

Although legislative reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is dead for now, Ginnie Mae supporters continue to worry about what might happen to agency MBS spreads if the government-sponsored enterprises get an explicit guarantee on their MBS.

The bankruptcy filing by Sears will likely place additional stress on commercial MBS backed by the retailer, but the effect in most deals could be minimal and, in the long term, even positive for the commercial properties, said rating agencies.

Fitch Ratings issued a commentary this week criticizing other rating services for the preliminary ratings they made on a non-agency MBS from Galton Funding. The company also suggested that it will increase its output of unsolicited commentary due to “late-cycle credit behavior.”

Although prepayment speeds on Ginnie Mae MBS are now at the lowest level since 2014, agency Executive Vice President Maren Kasper expressed persistent concerns about the matter in remarks at the annual convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association this week.

The characteristics of MBS backed by reperforming and nonperforming loans are evolving as the housing recovery ripens. The supply of NPLs is declining while RPL MBS issuance looks to remain stable in the coming years, according to industry participants.

Top-notch ratings assigned by three firms to a non-agency mortgage-backed security from Galton Funding prompted criticism from Fitch Ratings, which didn’t rate the issuance. The planned $452.7 million Galton Funding Mortgage Trust 2018-2 diverges from traditional non-agency MBS in its treatment of unpaid interest from delinquent mortgages. Fitch suggested that the change to the deal structure was so significant that it wouldn’t rate the transaction. Fitch noted that losses from unpaid ...

The amount of single-family Ginnie Mae mortgage servicing rights increased a modest 0.9 percent during the third quarter, according to a new analysis and ranking by Inside FHA/VA Lending. Some $1.858 trillion of Ginnie mortgage-backed securities were outstanding at the end of September, a 6.2 percent gain over the previous 12 months. Loans guaranteed by the VA continued to be the fastest growing segment of the Ginnie market. Volume was up 1.3 percent from the end of June, hitting $630.9 billion, an 11.0 percent increase from the same time last year. The FHA segment remained far bigger: $1.114 trillion at the end of the third quarter. However, its growth rate has been slower: 0.7 percent from June and 3.9 percent compared to September 2017. Loan performance deteriorated slightly in both programs. Some 92.9 percent of FHA loans were current at the end of September, down from ... [Charts]

Participants in Ginnie Mae’s single-family mortgage-backed securities program may expect new policy changes, including servicer and credit ratings for the largest issuers, clarification of “appropriate sources of liquidity” and other financial requirements. The changes come as issuer liquidity continues to be a primary concern for Ginnie Mae, particularly with nonbanks now the dominant segment in the single-family MBS program. “We’re working on those policies right now,” said Leslie Meaux Pordzik, Ginnie’s acting senior vice president, Office of Issuer and Portfolio Management, at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual convention in Washington, DC, this week. Nonbanks account for nearly two-thirds of Ginnie MBS issuance and approximately 75 percent of FHA and VA lending. Nonbanks serviced a record 61.1 percent of outstanding Ginnie single-family MBS at the end of the ...

Ginnie Mae has made considerable progress in dealing with rapid prepayments on VA loans but prepayment speeds on Ginnie mortgage-backed securities in general continue to annoy investors. Prepay speeds on Ginnie MBS are now at the lowest since 2014 but it is not enough for agency Executive Vice President Maren Kasper to feel confident as she addressed the annual convention of the Mortgage Bankers Association this week. “Our prepayment issue is not solved,” said Kasper, as she spoke on a panel with representatives of government-lending programs. The agency continues to hear from investors about the problem, she said. Kasper cited two instances where Ginnie officials were summoned to meetings in China and New York to explain the prepayments to irate investors. They threatened to stop purchasing Ginnie bonds, she said. Kasper declined to say how bad the ...