An increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve is likely to be accompanied by a change to a Fed program that could have a significant impact on investors’ cost to finance purchases of MBS, according to industry analysts. The Fed could increase interest rates as soon as Dec. 16. In a report released this week, analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities noted that Fed officials have discussed removing a cap on the Fed’s overnight reverse-repurchase program when interest rates increase. “That program will almost surely put...
Some market analysts see an investment opportunity brewing in subprime auto ABS in the coming year, despite increasing regulatory attention. But certain rating analysts are emphasizing the rising losses the sector has been seeing for the last few months, and a few contrarians think the market is either poised to enter bubble territory or is already there. Consumer ABS analysts at Wells Fargo Securities are recommending subprime auto subordinated bonds rated BBB, convinced they offer good value on a risk-adjusted basis. With spreads set to finish 2015 at historically wide levels (excluding the financial crisis), the analysts expect...
American Homes 4 Rent, the largest publicly traded player in the single-family rental market, late this week agreed to buy American Residential Properties in a deal valued at $1.5 billion. It was the second transaction involving real estate investment trusts in the SFR sector within three months, and has sparked talk of further consolidation, including perhaps mortgage REITs. A research note from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, penned right before the AH4R-ARP combination was unveiled, noted that mergers in the space are possible “given current valuation discounts ….” In other words, the share prices of single-family rental REITs have been...
Among the regulatory initiatives underway at the Securities and Exchange Commission is a potential crack-down on conflicts of interest at credit rating agencies. In the SEC’s latest regulatory agenda, the agency noted that its Office of Credit Ratings is “considering recommending that the commission propose rules and amendments designed to address the conflicts of interest associated with the issuer-pay business model.” In other words, at issue is...
Most mortgage lenders reported a significant uptick in purchase-mortgage originations during the third quarter of 2015, though there is little sign that originators are lowering credit standards to stimulate more business. According to revised estimates by Inside Mortgage Finance, purchase-mortgage originations climbed 10.7 percent from the second to the third quarter of this year, hitting $280 billion. At that level, the purchase market was the strongest it has been since the third quarter of 2007. At the same time, credit standards – at least in the agency market – have eased...[Includes two data tables]
First-time homebuyers are reportedly sitting on the sidelines and have dropped to their lowest levels in three decades, according to the National Association of Realtors. In its latest annual survey of buyers and sellers, NAR noted that the share of first-time buyers declined to 32 percent, from 33 percent a year ago and the lowest since first-time buyers spiraled down to 30 percent in 1987. But not so fast, says Edward Pinto, former chief credit officer of Fannie Mae and co-director and chief risk officer of the International Center on Housing Risk at the American Enterprise Institute, who disputes NAR’s data and describes the first-time buyer market as “booming.” “The buyers are...
For a sector that originates, at best, $5 billion a year, the fledgling subprime mortgage industry is garnering a bit of attention these days, though most investors do not publicize their interest. One nonprime executive who has received funding and spoke under the condition his name not be used described his suitors as hedge funds, private-equity firms and real estate investment trusts. He also mentioned “rich” individuals looking to put money to work. To date, the largest investment in a subprime/non-agency lender appears...
Fannie Mae last week updated its policies to allow seller/servicers to pledge a transfer of interest in their servicing income as collateral. Now Fannie, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae have three different approaches for the pledge of servicing income and/or servicing advances. David Fleig, president and CEO of MorVest Capital, an investment firm, noted that the update by Fannie follows a move by Ginnie. Last year, Ginnie started allowing issuers to pledge servicing income without notifying Ginnie. Fannie’s new policy requires...
Ellington Financial, a REIT that carries an 11.20 percent dividend and yield, has admitted to buying non-QM loans in past filings with the SEC, but has not racked up huge volumes...
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