Attendance at the ABS East conference hit a record this week even as industry participants are anticipating a recession. Parts of the ABS market are offering investors better returns than corporate debt.
Nearly 90% of loan liquidations in Ginnie MBS resulted from borrower payoffs in the third quarter, with most of them linked to MBS issued in 2020 and 2021.
Bank demand for agency MBS is weak, leading to wider spreads and losses on MBS holdings for some. Banks are also reducing their lending activity, providing an opening for nonbanks.
Delinquencies are rising on commercial MBS, driven by office properties. Losses are expected to follow and it could be years before the situation improves.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. But, perhaps, having the GSEs create demand by purchasing (a lot) more of their own MBS in an effort to lower rates is a bridge too far.
Vehicle ABS issuance reached a record $46.5 billion in the third quarter, and that doesn't count rental-fleet financing. But a sharp decline in auto-dealer floorplan securitization led to a slip in business ABS production. (Includes three data tables.)