Analysts expect the U.S. economic recovery to continue on a slow, weak path into 2013 with the potential for a new recession that could weaken the residential MBS market. At Standard & Poor’s, analysts predict a “slow and uneven” economic recovery with a 15 percent to 20 percent chance of another recession that would be less severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis but potent enough to sap the MBS market. S&P assumes a reversal in home prices and unemployment rising to near 9 percent in 2013, which could hamper borrower capacity to make their mortgage payments. Overall, S&P’s outlook for the single-family MBS market is...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities remained the preferred investment choice of the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks during the third quarter of 2012, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter, according to a new analysis and ranking by Inside The GSEs based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Meanwhile, Ginnie Mae securities posted a modest increase within the FHLBank system during the period ending Sept. 30, 2012.

Industry groups are lukewarm but supportive overall of the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s efforts to modernize Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s securitization process but they remain concerned about changing servicing models, according to comment letters submitted to the agency. In September, the FHFA in a white paper proposed a framework for both a common securitization platform and a model pooling and servicing agreement with a request for public comment. The proposed infrastructure has “two complementary goals” – to replace the outmoded proprietary infrastructures of the GSEs with a common, more efficient model and to establish a framework that’s consistent with multiple states of housing finance reform, including greater participation of private capital in assuming credit risk.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said it largely supports accounting changes that would impact holdings of mortgage-backed securities. Under a proposal by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, there would be no change in measurement for reporting entities that carry certain assets and liabilities at amortized cost. The MBA said the update proposed by FASB in October would require certain changes to the measurement of assets and liabilities of securitizations that a reporting entity is required ...

As part of negotiations regarding the fiscal cliff, the Obama administration and Democrats in the House are seeking principal reduction loan modifications for borrowers with negative equity. The Treasury Department has reportedly proposed a program targeting borrowers with mortgages in non-agency mortgage-backed securities while the debate about principal forgiveness for loans held by the government-sponsored enterprises has also been rekindled. The Obama administration would neither confirm nor deny the non-agency proposal, but details regarding the Market Rate Modification program have prompted talk among industry participants and a detailed analysis. “In order to assist...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this month completed implementation of the latest round of guaranty fee hikes, this one mandated by their regulator as a move to reduce the footprint of the government-sponsored enterprises and draw more private capital into the mortgage market. Experts say the 10 basis point fee hike will have a slight positive impact in the near term, but future moves in the same direction could help close the gap between agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities. The Federal Housing Finance Agency ordered the GSEs to raise g-fees by 10 bps for cash deliveries starting in November, and for MBS transactions beginning in December. At the time, the FHFA said...

MBS industry groups generally support the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s plan to develop a single securitization platform and model pooling and servicing agreements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But they question whether a standardized system will for the non-agency MBS market or risk-sharing arrangements envisioned for the government-sponsored enterprises. The FHFA has been pushing the two GSEs to standardize their securitization operations in recent years, including uniform data delivery requirements, consistent servicing rules and, most recently, a new framework for seller representations and warranties that will go into effect in January. The agency wants...

New issuance of agency MBS jumped dramatically in November, hitting its highest monthly production volume in over three years, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS ranking and analysis. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae combined for a whopping $199.34 billion in new single-family MBS during November, a 46.4 percent jump from the previous month. It was the highest monthly agency MBS output since June 2009, when $232.13 billion of MBS were issued. The November surge may reflect...[Includes one data chart]

A new non-agency jumbo MBS from a subsidiary of Credit Suisse Group includes some key differences compared with Redwood Trust deals, while pumping life into the non-agency market. DLJ Mortgage Capital issued a $329.89 million non-agency jumbo MBS late last week via a private placement; it was the company’s third of 2012. CSMC Trust 2012-CIM3 received a AAA rating from Standard & Poor’s with credit enhancement of 5.85 percent on the top-rated tranche. The new Credit Suisse deal included...

A close comparative look at the stimulus activity of the Federal Reserve suggests its support of the MBS market delivers more bang for the buck to the overall U.S. economy than its purchase of Treasury securities, according to a top Fed official. “[B]uying MBS has a different effect on the constellation of credit-market rates than buying Treasury securities,” Fed Governor Jeremy Stein said in a speech. Taking a look at what happened in the credit markets in the wake of the Fed Open Market Committee’s Sept. 13 announcement of a new program to purchase an additional $40 billion a month of agency MBS, Stein found...