Nonbanks, and even some large banks, would like to keep more of the servicing rights they create this year. But if origination profits sputter, all bets could be off.

The next step to revise capital requirements for large banks is undetermined, two mortgage efforts at the CFPB will fall to a Republican appointee and FHFA’s planned reforms for the FHLBanks face uncertainty.

Many consumers are expected to be in cost-savings mode in the first half of 2025, offering lenders opportunities to push refinances.

Not all warehouse lenders have jumped into the MSR-finance pool, but that could change over time.

On the surface, the yield looks expensive for the issuer but in a rising interest rate environment, maybe it’s not.

Servicing outstanding on 1-4 family mortgages increased by an estimated 0.8% during the third quarter. Ginnie servicing grew at more than twice that pace, fueled by refinance originations. (Includes two data tables.)

A spin-off of nonbank Newrez by Rithm Capital parent could happen in 2025. The missing ingredient: lower interest rates.

Subservicing balances are declining across the spectrum, but not all vendors are suffering. Cenlar remains the market leader, but Mr. Cooper, ranked second, is no slouch. (Includes data table.)

Some MSR buyers are offering exceptionally strong bids for servicing, counting on being able to recapture borrowers when interest rates drop. The high bids are creating some complications for sellers and MSR valuations.

Prepayment rates during the recent dip in mortgage rates were higher than expected, suggesting lenders have extra staff on hand. Still, it could be a while before interest rates fall low enough to significantly boost lending.