For several quarters now, commercial banks have been hanging onto underwater non-QMs originated by their warehouse clients because a sale or securitization would blow a hole in the originator’s financial hull. But one of these days, the situation will come to a head, if it hasn’t already.
The FHFA will significantly reduce a controversial fee for comingled securities in UMBS; no consistent trend in delinquencies and losses across MBS and ABS in December; term SOFR not an option as GSEs leave LIBOR behind.
Expanded-credit MBS issuance declined by nearly 50% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. Prime MBS issuance fared even worse, essentially freezing during the final months of the year. (Includes data chart.)
Non-agency MBS issuance perked up in early January as investor demand improved. Redwood Trust offered a jumbo MBS after a year-long lull in issuance and expanded-credit MBS issuers priced deals at tightening spreads.
The impairment rate on securitized non-QMs posted its largest one-month jump in November since the early days of the pandemic. Hurricane Ian was a factor.
Prices on non-agency MBS took such a hit in 2022 that the market is now gaining popularity with investors, even with the threat of a recession. Still, new issuance in 2023 is expected to come in lower on an annual basis.
Increasingly, nonbanks are using their “owned” MSRs as collateral for repo lines. And why not? Servicing values continue to be strong, and prepayments are almost non-existent.