Mortgage originations last year increased by some $435 billion from 2011 and virtually all of that gain came from refinance activity. Unless housing activity begins to grow significantly faster, mortgage lending volume appears likely to drop significantly in 2013. Prodded along by the suddenly successful Home Affordable Refinance Program, refi lending increased by $403 billion last year, a 41.9 percent increase over 2011. And although a number of indicators suggested that housing sales were beginning to firm up, home-purchase mortgage originations were up just 6.3 percent – a gain of $32 billion – compared to the previous year. In fact, purchase-mortgage originations have been...[Includes three data charts]