This year, the commercial MBS market will see the influence of the newly effective Securities and Exchange Commission rule on CMBS risk retention, which likely will mean higher credit quality but also a degree of unpredictability when it comes to issuance, according to industry analysts. At Wells Fargo Securities, analysts who cover the CMBS space are forecasting non-agency issuance of $65.0 billion in 2017. “While CMBS issuance has historically grown with the economy, this is not exactly the typical cycle,” they said in a recent client note. “Economic growth has been uneven and property fundamentals seem to be maturing.” Requiring CMBS issuers to retain at least 5 percent of the credit risk adds...