The prospects for consumer ABS in 2016 are a bit mixed. Auto ABS – especially subprime – appear susceptible to the Federal Reserve’s promised raising of interest rates this year and beyond, but credit card ABS are strong and performing well. “Rising interest rates could pressure U.S. auto ABS transactions, especially first on subprime deals,” analysts at Fitch Ratings said in a recent client note. While they expect last month’s initial rate increase by the Fed to have only a marginal near-term impact on borrowers, they said the plan to raise rates gradually over four years could increase the monthly debt burden on auto loan borrowers. “Although the rate increases are expected to affect the entire market, Fitch believes...

Republican leadership on the House Financial Services Committee is accusing the CFPB of engaging in a cover up, slamming the agency for deliberately using flawed data that falsely suggests auto dealers are discriminating in the pricing of loans to minority buyers. The Republican staffers on the committee released a number of documents that appear to show the officials at the CFPB not only were aware their data was flawed but also that they discussed how to prevent people outside the agency from discovering it. For instance, a May 2013 draft of a memo to CFPB Director Richard Cordray revealed that bureau staff had “reason to believe that our proxy is less accurate in identifying the race/ethnicity of particular individuals than ...

Standard & Poor’s rated some $84.64 billion of non-mortgage ABS issued in the U.S. during the first nine months of the year, making it the top rating service in the segment, according to a new ranking by Inside MBS & ABS. S&P was well represented in all the major ABS sectors, with its strongest showing in credit card ABS, where it rated 73.4 percent of 2015 issuance based on dollar volume. Fitch Ratings was...[Includes two data tables]

Industry analysts are generally optimistic that most of the large consumer ABS sectors will probably see a stable, positive year in 2016. However, they’re not very gung-ho about what kind of a year the government-backed student loan space is going to have. Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities think that consumer ABS should offer good relative value next year, based on solid credit fundamentals and robust structural protections. “We expect spreads to tighten in 2016 as the primary market recovers and the yield curve flattens along with Federal Reserve tightening,” they said in a recent outlook. “Spreads are likely to stay volatile and event-driven.” Further, “Weak demand and poor liquidity have been...

Search engine giant Google recently launched a new mortgage comparison tool that allows borrowers and lenders to search for the lowest rates, a development that will be carefully watched for the simple reason that, well, it’s Google. The mortgage tool is a part of Google Compare, a service that allows consumers to compare options for various products, such as credit cards and auto insurance. Though the effort is branded with Google’s name, the company has teamed up with Zillow and LendingTree to introduce this service. Compare allows...

Some market analysts see an investment opportunity brewing in subprime auto ABS in the coming year, despite increasing regulatory attention. But certain rating analysts are emphasizing the rising losses the sector has been seeing for the last few months, and a few contrarians think the market is either poised to enter bubble territory or is already there. Consumer ABS analysts at Wells Fargo Securities are recommending subprime auto subordinated bonds rated BBB, convinced they offer good value on a risk-adjusted basis. With spreads set to finish 2015 at historically wide levels (excluding the financial crisis), the analysts expect...

The CFPB indicated in its recently released 2015 rulemaking agenda that it is continuing to finalize a proposal it published in December 2014 to amend certain aspects of the bureau’s 2013 mortgage servicing rules. The proposal addressed, among other things, enhanced loss mitigation requirements and compliance with certain rules when the borrower is a potential or confirmed successor in interest or is in bankruptcy. “We have been conducting testing of periodic statements for consumers in bankruptcy and are working to develop the final rule for issuance in mid-2016,” the CFPB said. The bureau also will continue working to support implementation of the multiple mortgage rules required by the Dodd-Frank Act, such as the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act rule, the integrated ...

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed bipartisan legislation, H.R.1737, the Reforming CFPB Indirect Auto Financing Guidance Act, which would declare “without force or effect” the bureau’s controversial guidance on indirect auto finance. At issue is CFPB Bulletin 2013-02 (Indirect Auto Lending and Compliance with the Equal Credit Opportunity Act), which the bureau published on March 21, 2013. The bill also would direct the CFPB, when proposing and issuing guidance primarily related to indirect auto financing, to provide for a public notice and comment period before issuing the guidance in final form; make publicly available all information relied on by the CFPB; and redact any information exempt from disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act. The bureau also would have ...

For the second time in four months, the CFPB has rejected a Freedom of Information Act request from the auto dealer industry to make public a number of leaked agency documents that are said to undermine the bureau’s assertions that it is not trying to regulate auto dealers. The CFPB’s latest rejection came in response to a FOIA request filed last month by the National Automobile Dealers Association, asking the CFPB to release internal documents leaked to the news media apparently acknowledging that the agency intended to regulate the auto finance market through enforcement action. Further, the documents are said to have revealed that the bureau eschewed evidence that its methods for estimating disparate impact in the auto finance sector ...

Issuance of non-mortgage ABS fell 31.7 percent from the second quarter of 2015 to the third quarter, with significant declines in most major sectors, according to a new Inside MBS & ABS ranking and analysis. A total of $37.00 billion of ABS were issued in the third quarter, well off the pace set in the first half of the year. On a year-to-date basis, new ABS production was down 4.5 percent from the first nine months of 2014. That puts in jeopardy the string of four consecutive annual increases in ABS issuance since 2010 as the market enters the final lap of the year. Vehicle finance deals remained...[Includes two data tables]