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Economists Tout Model for House Price Trends

May 22, 2015
Economists at the Federal Housing Finance Agency published a paper last week detailing a model that could be a better gauge of how low house prices can fall than models used before the financial crisis.“Leveraging a model based upon consumer and investor incentives, we are able to explain the depth of housing market downturns at both the national and state level over a variety of market environments,” the economists said. The economists noted that their model is dynamic, which is more useful than the static models used by the predecessor to the FHFA, which “proved insufficiently stressful in the lead up to the Great Recession.” A model based on a static shock can produce an insufficient level of stress ...
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Without the Refi Surge, the First Quarter Would Have Been a Dud

May 21, 2015
John Bancroft
If purchase-lending doesn’t increase soon the mortgage industry could be in for some turbulence.
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Final FHFA Servicer-Eligibility Rules Will Impact Smaller Shops More

May 21, 2015
Paul Muolo
According to analyst Paul Miller of FBR Capital Markets, the standards are meant to “impact small, nonpublic, nondepository institutions that have operated on the periphery of the sector.”
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Analysts See Stronger Market in 2015, But Little Change In Fundamental Problems Facing the Mortgage Industry

May 21, 2015
Housing is showing some traction, but heavy regulation and enforcement continue to weigh on the mortgage market, according to analysts at this week’s secondary-market conference sponsored by the Mortgage Bankers Association in New York. Charles Gabriel, president of Capital Alpha Advisors, said there are some green shoots in the mortgage market, including signs of more home sales. But he characterized it as “a mature market that is suboptimized.” Lenders have paid massive penalties in lawsuits, he added, and there is no sign that they will expand the credit box. “U.S. Bank was asked...
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Dems’ Alternate Reg Relief Bill Would Confer QM Status on Portfolio Loans Only for Small Lenders

May 21, 2015
The noise over regulatory relief legislation is getting louder. Over the past week, Republicans in the Senate issued a clarification of sorts about their draft legislation, Democrats came up with a narrower alternative and the industry weighed in as the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee prepared for a markup scheduled for late this week. A noteworthy provision in the Democrats’ proposal would extend qualified-mortgage status for loans originated and held in portfolio – but only if the depository institution has less than $10 billion in assets. The GOP bill would extend this safe harbor to all banks, thrifts and credit unions. The Democratic proposal would bar...
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FHFA IG Worries About Nonbank Risk (Again), Cyber Attacks, More

May 20, 2015
Paul Muolo
In response to its anxiety, the Inspector General plans a series of audits that will study the risks posed by an increasing volume of nonbank loan sales.
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FHA Premium Cut Helped Fuel 1Q Jump in Government Lending; Quicken #1 Again

May 19, 2015
George Brooks
Quicken once again ranked first among all FHA lenders, funding $2.46 billion during 1Q, more than double the volume of its closest competitor, Wells Fargo.
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Morgan Stanley Cuts Stake in Ocwen as Shorts Increase

May 19, 2015
Paul Muolo
According to the website ShortSqueeze.com, almost 30.2 million shares of Ocwen are presently being shorted by speculators or 46.48 percent of the float...
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Performance of a Shrinking Balance of Subprime Loans on the Rise. Yes, That’s Right

May 18, 2015
Brandon Ivey
According to exclusive figures compiled by Inside Nonconforming Markets, roughly $320.0 billion in subprime mortgages were outstanding at March 31, 2015.
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Debt Collection Industry Turning In Quite a Varied Performance

May 18, 2015
The top three operations in the debt collection business all saw their consumer complaint numbers fall both quarter over quarter and year over year, according to a new analysis by Inside the CFPB. Fourth-ranked Enhanced Recovery Co. was the only one of the top five to see increases in both timeframes, and they were doozies: a 96.5 percent jump QoQ and a huge spike of 184.1 percent YoY. Citibank, the only financial institution in the top tier, was uneven, with complaints up a small 6.3 percent QoQ, but down a substantial 28.5 percent YoY. This dynamic seemed in full play for the entire industry, with many firms doing well, some doing poorly [with an exclusive chart] ...
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