A so-called stressed default rate on millions of residential loans originated between 1990 and 2019 suggests the risks that precipitated the global financial crisis were around long before that, and are growing in the current market.
A reduction in GSE refi business along with regulatory changes are expected to prompt an increase in originations of non-agency mortgages. The bulk of the increase could come from prime loans.
Securitization of mortgages for investment properties increased at Fannie and Freddie in the first quarter even as overall GSE business declined. Lenders appear to have rushed to deliver the loans before new restrictions took effect. (Includes data chart.)
A number of firms are working to increase originations of non-QMs and ramping up investments in the loans. It can be a highly profitable business, though investor demand is volatile.
As an increase in interest rates curtailed its GSE refi volume, Impac is rushing to ramp up originations of non-QMs. The firm also plans to issue its own MBS.
Some 15.5% of applications for jumbo mortgages in 2020 were denied by lenders. Among individual funders, denial rates ranged from a low of 1% to north of 50%. (Includes data chart.)
Business-purpose lender Velocity Financial increased loan production in the first quarter of 2021 but income declined. The firm, which sold fewer loans in the first quarter, issued an MBS in May.
A flurry of non-agency MBS hit the market; the number of non-agency mortgages in forbearance increases; SFA raises concerns about CFPB’s proposal to establish a partial foreclosure moratorium; SFA to set up data tape task force; Sachem Capital generates $2.2 million of net income in 1Q21; new industry hires.
In the absence of the GSE patch, lenders have fewer incentives to rely on GSE eligibility when determining a loan’s QM status. Still, the final destination of a loan will depend on pricing in the non-agency market.
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