In another legacy residential MBS legal action, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System this week reached a record $130 million settlement with Moody’s Investors Service over the ratings service’s allegedly erroneous ratings of AAA-rated structured investment vehicles in the run-up to the financial crisis. Back in 2009, CalPERS sued Moody’s – along with Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings – after the pension fund claimed massive losses from investments in three structured investment vehicles that depended on the liquidity of assets that proved to be illiquid, such as subprime MBS, collateralized debt obligations and other ABS. In the lawsuit, CalPERS accused Moody’s of making “negligent misrepresentations” by assigning its highest credit rating to the investments. This caused significant losses as the market ...

Falling oil prices may have little impact on residential MBS even if distressed prime jumbo borrowers in oil-producing states were to default on their loans, according to Standard & Poor’s. The rating agency’s optimistic conclusion may be good news to investors concerned that job cuts in the oil industry will lead to high default rates among prime jumbo borrowers, particularly in states where a high percentage of workers are in oil production. Market information suggests that values of prime jumbo MBS in oil-producing states are being affected, as the market factors in the risk of losses arising from borrower defaults in these regions, the S&P report said. However, it is unclear whether the additional spread on MBS with high concentrations ...

Ginnie Mae securitization of rural home loans declined in 2015 as securitization volume in the segment fell in the fourth quarter, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of Ginnie Mae data. A total of $18.1 billion in USDA loans were securitized in 2015, with the top five issuers accounting for $10.2 billion delivered into Ginnie (based on numbers below) MBS pools. Some $4.5 billion of MBS backed by rural home loans with the U.S. Department of Agriculture guarantee were issued in the fourth quarter, down 12.5 percent from the previous quarter. USDA MBS issuance also dropped 9.0 percent in 2015 from 2014 volume levels, with all of the top five issuers losing ground year-over-year as well as in the fourth quarter. Chase Home Finance remained the top issuer of securitized rural home loans, accounting for $5.6 billion in Ginnie MBS issuances last year. Second-place Wells Fargo, ... [ 1 chart ]

The expected increase in interest rates on some previously modified home mortgages is a slight credit negative for RMBS performance because these loans will re-default at a higher rate, according to analysts at Moody’s Investors Service. However, higher default rates will have only a modest effect on subprime and Alt A RMBS, because only a small percentage of outstanding subprime and Alt A mortgage loans are positioned to experience future rate step-ups. In their research, the analysts found that subprime and Alt A modified loans become delinquent more frequently after a rate step-up. “Modified subprime and Alt A loans with a demonstrated performance history of four to five years become delinquent at a significantly higher rate after a step-up in interest rates than do loans of a similar type and vintage that have not stepped up,” said the analysts in a new report released this week. According to their data, in July 2015, only 2 percent of the modified re-performing subprime loans became...

When the Federal Reserve hiked short-term rates back in mid-December, mortgage rates were expected to increase as well and keep heading north in the new year. But thanks to deep concerns about economic growth in China – not to mention plunging oil prices – all bets are now off. This past week, the price on the benchmark Fannie Mae 3.5 percent security increased by 44 basis points, according to figures compiled by MBS Quoteline. As Inside MBS & ABS went to press ...

Issuers of Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pushed a record $435.80 billion of government-insured loans through the program during 2015, according to a new Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis and ranking. Last year’s total Ginnie MBS issuance topped the previous record of $429.50 billion issued during 2009. The $435.80 billion total for 2015 includes securitization of FHA home-equity conversion mortgages and other single-family loans guaranteed by FHA, the VA, and the Department of Agriculture rural housing program from Ginnie pool-level MBS data that are not truncated. Production in 2015 hit its high-water mark in the third quarter with $128.23 billion in issuance, and then fell 18.0 percent in the final three months of the year. Purchase mortgages continued to account for most Ginnie business in 2015, 58.0 percent of the agency’s forward-mortgage securitizations. But a huge factor in the ... [ Charts ]

The first rated securitization backed by nonperforming Home Equity Conversion Mortgage loans contains strong, credit-positive features that outweigh the credit risk associated with nonperforming loans, according to a Moody’s Investors Service analysis. The effect of some of these positive features on the performance of Nationstar HECM Loan Trust 2015-2, however, depends on whether Nationstar Mortgage remains as servicer for the transaction, said the rating agency. Nationstar has a servicer rating of B2/Stable from Moody’s and is also the transaction’s sponsor. Nationstar issued NHLT 2015-2 in November 2015 and by the end of December, the first remittance report showed strong initial performance. Credit enhancement to the Aaa (sf)-rated notes increased by 1.69 percent in the first month of operations, Moody’s noted. “As long as Nationstar continues to be the ...

Four nonprime MBS backed by newly-originated residential loans came to market during the last four months of 2015, but none of deals were rated, a situation that could change in the new year. In a recent interview with Inside MBS & ABS, John Hsu, head of capital markets for Angel Oak Capital, said his company hopes to get a rated deal done in 2016, believing such a milestone would help move the nascent market forward. “We need...

The prospects for consumer ABS in 2016 are a bit mixed. Auto ABS – especially subprime – appear susceptible to the Federal Reserve’s promised raising of interest rates this year and beyond, but credit card ABS are strong and performing well. “Rising interest rates could pressure U.S. auto ABS transactions, especially first on subprime deals,” analysts at Fitch Ratings said in a recent client note. While they expect last month’s initial rate increase by the Fed to have only a marginal near-term impact on borrowers, they said the plan to raise rates gradually over four years could increase the monthly debt burden on auto loan borrowers. “Although the rate increases are expected to affect the entire market, Fitch believes...

Investors should see a higher share of VA collateral in Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities pools due to increasing VA loan originations, according to Deutsche Bank analysts. Given their rising share of VA collateral, new Ginnie pools are likely to have worse convexity than most of those originated in 2015, analysts said. “VA loans tend to prepay faster than FHA loans when in the money as VA loans have larger loan sizes, higher FICO scores and a more efficient streamline refi program that requires a minimum three months seasoning,” they observed. In addition, analysts expect the population of younger veterans to surge approximately 36 percent over the next five years. “[As such], there will be a healthy supply of new VA originations eligible for pooling,” they said. As a result, the share of FHA relative to VA collateral in new Ginnie II pools will likely decrease, they said. Such a trend has manifested itself slowly as ...