Estimating where MBS prices might be headed has never been an easy game – and thanks to the debt crisis in Greece and a stock meltdown in China, it’s become a whole lot more difficult of late. But for now, analysts and market watchers are certain of one thing: MBS prices have been volatile the past two weeks thanks to a flight to quality, forcing investors everywhere to buy U.S. Treasuries. And because mortgages track Treasuries, yields have fallen and prices have increased. “The Greek crisis already has taken...

The enormous amount of capital flowing into the commercial real estate financing industry is the biggest factor that has shaped the market in recent years, according to Brian Stoffers, global president at CBRE Capital Markets. “It’s recognized as a good place to be if you’re an asset allocator, and it’s recognized as an institutional play with growth opportunities and cash flow,” he said speaking on a recent real estate panel in Miami. “So that kind of capital flow has driven [capitalization] rates lower.” Commercial real estate lending levels are exceeding...

Ginnie Mae issuance of government-insured mortgage-backed securities rose a whopping 47.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015 from the previous quarter, powered by a robust FHA refinancing volume, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of agency data. Government-backed Ginnie MBS production in the second quarter totaled $117.5 billion, up from $79.8 billion in the prior quarter. Volume year-to-date also increased by 57.7 percent from the first six months of last year. From May to June, government-backed securitization increased a modest 2.9 percent. FHA loans comprised 62.6 percent of Ginnie MBS issuance in the second quarter while VA accounted for 33.7 percent. Securitized loans with a Rural Housing Service guaranty represented 3.6 percent of total Ginnie MBS issuance during the period. FHA loan securitization was robust in the second quarter, as volume ... [ Charts ]

Thanks to the recent uptick in interest rates, sellers of mortgage servicing rights are seeing strong bids on new production, but the market is being described by advisors as “sustainable,” compared to some of the frothy peaks of last year. June was actually a slow month for servicing sales, dealmakers told Inside Mortgage Finance, but that was to be expected, given all the contracts inked in April and May that needed time to close. With the second quarter having just ended, several large flow and bulk MSR transactions are...

An increase in short-term interest rates will have an outsized impact on commercial MBS among structured finance assets, according to Moody’s Investors Service. In a report released last week, the rating service said higher interest rates will be credit negative for existing deal performance and new issuance for commercial MBS and largely neutral for residential MBS and most ABS sectors. As interest rates rise, Moody’s said term default risk on loans backing new issue commercial MBS will increase because the loans’ debt service coverage ratios will be lower than the DSCRs at the time of origination of loans in outstanding deals. “Rates on loans backing new conduit deals will increase, thereby reducing DSCR in relation to a given property’s cash flow,” the rating service said. “New conduit deals are typically backed by loan pools that were originated no more than ...

Clean-up calls executed by U.S. Bank on Ginnie Mae real estate mortgage investment conduits in recent years have caused problems for some investors, but industry analysts suggest that overall, the risk agency MBS investors face from clean-up calls is limited. Analysts at Performance Trust Capital Partners, an investing firm, warned recently that U.S. Bank has made about $53 million in profit the past three years by completing clean-up calls on Ginnie REMICs where the bank was the trustee. On Ginnie REMICs, trustees are allowed to complete clean-up calls when the outstanding balance on the security falls to less than 1.0 percent of the aggregate of the original class principal balance for the security. When executing a clean-up call, the trustee pays off the investors in the MBS at par. On Ginnie deals where U.S. Bank has completed clean-up calls, the REMICs have generally been trading at ...

Single-family rental securitizations appear to be performing well, according to analysts at Morningstar Credit Ratings, with few signs of trouble on the horizon. “Vacancy rates generally remain low, cash flows remain sufficient to cover bond obligations, and … the recently released May property-level data for the single-borrower, single-family rental asset class shows performance in line with its recent history,” the rating service said in a new report. Overall, monthly retention rates remain in the mid-70s to low-80s. Also, “delinquency rates are slightly higher from their April levels but remain mostly low.” Lease expirations are generally rising across SFR securitizations, Morningstar said, but vacancy rates have remained relatively flat month-over-month. “Although delinquency rates rose slightly across most transactions, the number of tenants past due on their payments remains low,” the analysts said. Elsewhere, so far, ...

Ginnie Mae securitized $6.6 billion of VA jumbo loans in the first three months of 2015, up 15.9 percent from the prior quarter, according to an Inside FHA/VA Lending analysis of Ginnie Mae data.Jumbo loans – single-family mortgages with loan amounts exceeding $417,000 – comprised 18.7 percent of total VA originations in the first quarter. VA jumbo originations outpaced FHA jumbo production, which totaled $2.8 billion in the first quarter, up 17.0 percent from the prior quarter, according to the Inside Mortgage Finance database. VA jumbos in Ginnie mortgage-backed securities issued in the first quarter included modified VA loans as well as those originated in Alaska, Guam, Hawaii and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Wells Fargo ranked first among securitizers of VA jumbos in the first quarter, with $1.3 billion in production. Second-ranked Freedom Mortgage conveyed $652.7 million in ... [ 1 chart ]

While the characteristics of loans included in jumbo mortgage-backed securities continue to be strong overall, industry analysts note that there are significant differences in “soft” underwriting guidelines used by lenders. “Not all underwriting guidelines, and exceptions to guidelines, are created equal,” analysts at Morningstar Credit Ratings cautioned in a recent report. “Some originators recently have introduced programs that make qualifying for financing easier and require less income documentation.” The company, which is making a new push to rate jumbo MBS, reviewed the guidelines of a number of the most active jumbo originators and aggregators ...

A new feature Redwood Trust has included in its two most recent jumbo mortgage-backed securities has prompted support from AAA investors along with mixed reactions from rating services. The $356.45 million Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2015-2 issued in April and the $343.21 million Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2015-3 that was issued this week included a unique stop-advance feature. Servicers of the loans won’t be allowed to provide advances of principal and interest on loans that are 120+ days delinquent. The jumbo MBS were rated by Kroll Bond Rating Agency and Moody’s Investors Service ...