This year, the commercial MBS market will see the influence of the newly effective Securities and Exchange Commission rule on CMBS risk retention, which likely will mean higher credit quality but also a degree of unpredictability when it comes to issuance, according to industry analysts. At Wells Fargo Securities, analysts who cover the CMBS space are forecasting non-agency issuance of $65.0 billion in 2017. “While CMBS issuance has historically grown with the economy, this is not exactly the typical cycle,” they said in a recent client note. “Economic growth has been uneven and property fundamentals seem to be maturing.” Requiring CMBS issuers to retain at least 5 percent of the credit risk adds...

Higher capital charges and the cost of capital associated with risk retention mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act will make commercial MBS less competitive with portfolio lending for loans backed by high-quality collateral, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service. The report stems from a Moody’s fourth-quarter 2016 analysis of three conduit transactions that were structured to comply with risk-retention prior to its implementation on Dec. 24, 2016. In each of the transactions, issuers retained 5 percent of either the securities or the collateral pool’s cash flows. In addition, the Moody’s report noted...

Among the many impediments to a revival of the non-agency MBS market is what potential investors see as a lack of transparency from issuers. To address the issue, the Institute for Financial Transparency has created a “transparency label” that will identify non-agency MBS that include adequate disclosures. Richard Field, director of the IFT, detailed the Transparency Label Initiative in a recent study published by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and the Center for Insurance Policy and Research. “While there has been a significant amount of activity surrounding disclosure for structured finance securities, these securities still remain...

Moody’s Investors Service agreed to a $863.79 million settlement with the Department of Justice, 21 states and Washington, DC, late last week. The settlement focused on rating activities between 2004 and 2010 involving residential MBS and collateralized debt obligations. According to the settlement, Moody’s used an internal ratings model for most tranches of certain residential MBS that was more lenient than its published guidelines, allowing for lower credit enhancement levels than what the published guidelines required. The internal model was based...

The residential MBS market is expected to be healthy this year, according to some ratings service analysts. But the new president is the big unknown, market participants say. According to analysts at Fitch Ratings, the rating outlook for U.S. RMBS they rate is auspicious, as they expect asset performance trends to stay positive thanks to support from solid, if somewhat uneven, gains in home prices. “Although a number of legacy transactions continue to face negative rating pressure due to declining loan counts and tail risk, rating upgrades outnumbered...

Credit quality for the loans backing unique warehouse-funding securitizations from Jefferies Funding remains strong, according to Moody’s Investors Service. One of the risks was that weaker collateral could be included in the transactions as time passed. The $225.0 million Station Place Securitization Trust 2016-1 received Aaa ratings from Moody’s last February and a $210.0 million 2016-3 transaction issued in May garnered an with Aaa rating. The rating service evaluated the deals recently as the 2016-1 securitization is set to pay down next month. “To date, there has been...

The Blackstone Group this month filed its long awaited initial public offering document on its Invitation Homes unit, a pioneer in single-family rentals and securitization of these assets. The 1,300 page Form S-11 is chock full of financial details on the real estate investment trust, including the revelation that the company continues to lose money. Through the first nine months of 2016 – the latest available data – Invitation Homes posted a net loss of $51.6 million compared to a $121.7 million loss in the same period a year earlier. The numbers and commentary in the filing indicate...

With financial markets awaiting, with some uncertainty, the public policy positions of the incoming Trump administration and the new Congress, industry analysts say ABS investors can expect most sectors to turn in stable performances in 2017. “As we look back on 2016 and consider the 2017 global structured finance outlook, most markets and their credit conditions seem favorable, and in some cases, even ideal. However, 2017 has many unknowns, especially the specific policies and priorities that will be adopted by the new U.S. administration,” said analysts with S&P Global Ratings in a recent outlook report. “Some would suggest government-sponsored enterprise privatization is possible, risk retention could be revised, and an appropriate/globally consistent capital treatment for structured finance products could be approved.” Further, “For the most part, we expect...

In late December, Freddie Mac issued a $934.27 million security backed by seasoned mortgages. It was the first seasoned credit-risk transfer from the government-sponsored enterprise. While Freddie has issued fully guaranteed securitizations backed by seasoned mortgages, Freddie Mac Seasoned Credit Risk Transfer Trust, Series 2016-1 included tranches without a guarantee from the GSE, similar to a non-agency senior-sub MBS. The transaction included...

With structured finance performance having peaked for many sectors, analysts at Fitch Rating and S&P Global Ratings anticipate some modest asset-level deterioration in 2017 – most notably in both prime and subprime auto ABS. On the other hand, they expect relatively stable performance from credit card ABS. “Both prime and subprime auto ABS loss rates could be...