Changes implemented in response to the financial crisis of 2008 helped the MBS and ABS markets perform better than expected at the onset of the pandemic.
Prime jumbos and loans eligible for sale to the GSEs helped propel the non-agency MBS market to a post-2010 record in the third quarter of 2021. Issuance of expanded-credit MBS lagged. (Includes data chart.)
The supply of mortgages for non-agency MBS is expected to decline, leading to concerns that industry participants might loosen underwriting standards to prop up volumes.
Attendance was down at the recent Structured Finance Association convention in Las Vegas. Discussions touched on the non-agency MBS market and the GSEs, among other issues.
The difference between interest rates on non-QMs in MBS and the interest rate paid to investors in the securities is helping to protect investors from losses. Excess spread in the sector increased as seasoned loans were repackaged.
Changes to underwriting standards and home price appreciation helped investors in non-agency MBS largely avoid losses during the pandemic. By comparison, cumulative losses on subprime MBS during the financial crisis of 2008 hit nearly 20%.
Issuers are still stocking non-agency MBS with GSE-eligible mortgages for investment properties. Lenders and issuers are considering their options following a suspension of limitations placed on the GSEs.