Issuance of prime non-agency MBS fell sharply in the second quarter of 2022 as rising interest rates limited investor demand for the securities. Nonbanks remained the main source of prime mortgages. (Includes three data charts.)

Non-agency lenders looking to sell mortgages with lower interest rates only have whole-loan sales as an outlet as MBS investors wait for new originations.

Sprout originated about half of the loans in a new $293.5 million expanded-credit MBS from an affiliate of Lone Star Funds. Fitch Ratings assessed the deal and suggested that risks tied to Sprout were limited.

Non-QMs are a double-edged sword for lenders, offering attractive margins along with extreme volatility risk. Industry analysts suggest demand for the loans in the secondary market will recover when lenders start selling mortgages with higher interest rates.

Expanded-credit MBS have been few and far between in July while non-agency MBS issuers have yet to offer a prime deal during the month.

MBS and ABS participants gathered in Las Vegas this week, discussing volatility and weak demand from investors. The consensus? Buyers will remain cautious until getting a better handle on the Fed’s actions.

S&P Global said its base-case assessment places the risk of recession over the next 12 months at 40%, “with the risk greater in 2023.”

Spreads on various types of residential MBS are wider than they were during the early days of the pandemic, suggesting that the assets aren’t particularly attractive to investors. However, that isn’t necessarily true.

Ginnie Mae issuance of single-family mortgage-backed securities declined 12.2% in the second quarter of 2022, as rising interest rates dragged the refinance market to new lows. (Includes four data charts.)

Rising interest rates had a major impact on non-agency MBS issuance in the second quarter, with volume down nearly 40% on a sequential basis. Expanded-credit MBS issuance held up better than prime volume, though the ECM sector is now in turmoil. (Includes data chart.)