dhollier@imfpubs.com

Fannie Mae Monday morning issued a revised forecast from its economic and strategic research group, predicting that residential originations will top $3.4 trillion in 2020, the most since the banner year of 2003.

In its July forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise was slightly less sanguine at $3.14 trillion.

Fannie economists say surging refinance volumes remain the driving force in the housing market. “We expect refinances in 2020 to reach $2.1 trillion, an upward revision of 10.3% relative to last month’s forecast,” the company said.

Overall, the ESRG sees the gross domestic product in the third quarter growing at an annualized rate of 27.2%. This compares to a historic 32.9% drop in the second quarter driven by the economic fallout from the pandemic.