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Volume 7 - Number 26

December 19, 2014

2015 Outlook: Downward Trend Continues

FHA originations are expected to decline modestly in 2015 unless the agency gives in to industry pressure to lower mortgage insurance premiums and lenders ease up on their overlays, according to analysts. Analysts anticipate no meaningful decline in FHA market share next year but do expect some drop as private mortgage insurance become more competitive, especially among borrowers with 720+ FICO scores. Overall, analysts expect 2015 to be slightly better than 2014 because of increased purchase-mortgage lending, which is partly offset by lower refinance activity. Mortgage volumes should climb to $1.18 trillion in 2015, some say. At Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, analysts Bose George and Chas Tyson predict private MIs will take more market share from the FHA in 2015. They do not expect meaningful policy changes from the FHA this year. For example, FHA has given ...

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